IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20

Overall
Predictive Rating	-3.2	#219
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	71.0	#120
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+2.9	#93

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-6.1	#337

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	5.7%	12.2%	5.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.7%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.4	13.3	14.5

.500 or above	28.5%	59.8%	27.3%
.500 or above in Conference	46.1%	68.3%	45.2%
Conference Champion	5.5%	15.0%	5.1%
Last Place in Conference	11.1%	3.3%	11.4%

First Four	0.7%	0.3%	0.7%
First Round	5.4%	12.1%	5.1%
Second Round	0.4%	1.2%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: North Carolina St. (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 2	1 - 3	1 - 7
Quad 3	4 - 7	5 - 15
Quad 4	9 - 4	13 - 19

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 10, 2019	22	@ North Carolina St.	L	75-94	4%
Nov 17, 2019	81	@ Clemson	L	66-79	12%
Nov 19, 2019	275	@ Wyoming	W	77-76	50%
Nov 24, 2019	106	UC Irvine	L	71-78	26%
Nov 25, 2019	202	Louisiana	L	84-85	48%
Nov 30, 2019	217	@ Ohio	L	77-80	40%
Dec 03, 2019	129	@ Kent St.	L	74-82	24%
Dec 07, 2019	222	Eastern Michigan	W	71-68	61%
Dec 10, 2019	41	@ Notre Dame	L	66-83	7%
Dec 14, 2019	112	Toledo	L	75-79	37%
Dec 19, 2019	130	Northeastern	L	75-77	43%
Dec 21, 2019	324	SIU Edwardsville	W	85-75	81%
Dec 28, 2019	201	@ Oakland	L	78-82	37%
Dec 30, 2019	8	@ Gonzaga	L	71-94	2%
Jan 03, 2020	133	Northern Kentucky	L	77-79	43%
Jan 05, 2020	103	Wright St.	L	72-76	36%
Jan 09, 2020	311	@ Cleveland St.	W	80-77	59%
Jan 11, 2020	225	@ Youngstown St.	L	79-82	41%
Jan 16, 2020	250	@ Wisconsin-Milwaukee	L	74-75	46%
Jan 18, 2020	167	@ Green Bay	L	83-89	31%
Jan 23, 2020	253	IUPUI	W	81-76	66%
Jan 25, 2020	131	Illinois-Chicago	L	79-81	43%
Jan 31, 2020	201	Oakland	W	81-79	58%
Feb 06, 2020	103	@ Wright St.	L	69-79	19%
Feb 08, 2020	133	@ Northern Kentucky	L	74-82	26%
Feb 13, 2020	225	Youngstown St.	W	82-79	60%
Feb 15, 2020	311	Cleveland St.	W	83-74	76%
Feb 21, 2020	167	Green Bay	W	87-86	50%
Feb 23, 2020	250	Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	77-72	65%
Feb 27, 2020	131	@ Illinois-Chicago	L	76-84	26%
Feb 29, 2020	253	@ IUPUI	L	78-79	46%
Projected Record						13 - 18	8 - 10

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st											0.0	0.0	0.3	1.0	1.7	1.3	0.8	0.4	0.0		5.5	1st
2nd											0.1	1.0	2.4	2.4	1.4	0.4	0.0				7.8	2nd
3rd									0.0	0.2	1.6	3.5	3.0	1.0	0.1	0.0					9.4	3rd
4th								0.0	0.3	2.1	4.5	3.1	0.7	0.0							10.9	4th
5th							0.0	0.4	2.8	5.2	3.0	0.7	0.0								12.1	5th
6th						0.0	0.5	3.3	5.8	3.0	0.5	0.0									13.1	6th
7th				0.0	0.0	0.8	3.4	4.8	2.6	0.4	0.0										12.0	7th
8th			0.0	0.1	1.2	3.4	4.8	2.3	0.3	0.0											12.0	8th
9th		0.0	0.3	1.7	3.4	3.2	1.5	0.2	0.0												10.3	9th
10th	0.2	0.8	1.7	2.1	1.5	0.6	0.0	0.0													6.9	10th

Total	0.2	0.8	2.0	4.0	6.1	8.0	10.3	10.9	11.8	10.9	9.8	8.4	6.4	4.5	3.2	1.7	0.8	0.4	0.0			Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
17-1	100.0%	0.4		0.4	0.0
16-2	95.7%	0.8		0.7	0.1
15-3	77.2%	1.3		0.9	0.3	0.1
14-4	52.1%	1.7		1.0	0.6	0.1	0.0
13-5	22.9%	1.0		0.3	0.4	0.2	0.0
12-6	5.0%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
11-7	0.6%	0.0				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%	0.0					0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	5.5%	5.5		3.3	1.6	0.5	0.1	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.0%		68.3%	20.6%	47.6%	8.7							0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0				0.0		60.0%
17-1	0.4%		57.9%	55.5%	2.4%	12.1					0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0		0.2		5.4%
16-2	0.8%		35.9%	34.2%	1.7%	12.7										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0		0.5		2.6%
15-3	1.7%		28.1%	27.6%	0.6%	13.1										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0	1.2		0.8%
14-4	3.2%		22.5%	22.5%		13.9												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.1	2.5
13-5	4.5%		18.4%	18.4%		14.1												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	0.0	3.7
12-6	6.4%		14.1%	14.1%		14.6													0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.2	5.5
11-7	8.4%		7.7%	7.7%		15.1													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.2	7.7
10-8	9.8%		6.3%	6.3%		15.3														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.3	9.2
9-9	10.9%		3.8%	3.8%		15.6															0.0	0.1	0.3	10.5
8-10	11.8%		2.7%	2.7%		15.7															0.0	0.1	0.2	11.5
7-11	10.9%		1.5%	1.5%		15.9																0.0	0.2	10.8
6-12	10.3%		0.7%	0.7%		15.9																0.0	0.1	10.2
5-13	8.0%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	8.0
4-14	6.1%																							6.1
3-15	4.0%																							4.0
2-16	2.0%																							2.0
1-17	0.8%																							0.8
0-18	0.2%																							0.2

Total	100%		5.7%	5.6%	0.0%	14.4					0.0		0.0	0.0		0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.8	1.2	1.6	1.6	94.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%